Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Socializing and general posts on wide-ranging topics. Remember, it's Poststructural!
Post Reply
User avatar
Nanohedron
Moderatorer
Posts: 38239
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2002 6:00 pm
antispam: No
Please enter the next number in sequence: 8
Tell us something.: Been a fluter, citternist, and uilleann piper; committed now to the way of the harp.

Oh, yeah: also a mod here, not a spammer. A matter of opinion, perhaps.
Location: Lefse country

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by Nanohedron »

Denny wrote:and how likely is it that we will just reduce carbon emissions without changing anything else
I never claimed it wouldn't. I did suggest that the idea of something bad happening is counterintuitive. Big difference.
Denny wrote:What happens to the stuff that you remove from yer apartment?
Good question. Most of that is stuff like dust, dirt, clay cat litter and what goes with it, and food matter; these being biodegradable, I daresay I can rest easy about their being problematic in the long run. Next is recycling: paper, plastics, and cans. As for the rest, I'm glad to say that I have a pretty low trash output, about one bag every 1½ to 2 weeks. Biodegradable trash bags, BTW. It ain't perfect, but it's a start.
"If you take music out of this world, you will have nothing but a ball of fire." - Balochi musician
User avatar
Denny
Posts: 24005
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2003 11:29 am
antispam: No
Location: N of Seattle

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by Denny »

sure Steve, but then the wheel stops goin' 'round.


yeah, yeah....that's what Tom said :wink:
Picture a bright blue ball just spinning, spinning free
It's dizzying, the possibilities. Ashes, Ashes all fall down.
User avatar
Denny
Posts: 24005
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2003 11:29 am
antispam: No
Location: N of Seattle

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by Denny »

Nanohedron wrote:I'm glad to say that I have a pretty low trash output
We're, usually, one grocery bag worth of outgoing a week.
Picture a bright blue ball just spinning, spinning free
It's dizzying, the possibilities. Ashes, Ashes all fall down.
User avatar
Nanohedron
Moderatorer
Posts: 38239
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2002 6:00 pm
antispam: No
Please enter the next number in sequence: 8
Tell us something.: Been a fluter, citternist, and uilleann piper; committed now to the way of the harp.

Oh, yeah: also a mod here, not a spammer. A matter of opinion, perhaps.
Location: Lefse country

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by Nanohedron »

That's pretty good, I'd say.

If we just have to have disposable packaging, I would much prefer it if we could revisit the more Earth-friendly things I remember as a kid, like cellophane, degradable paper products, and wood. I suppose it's too much to ask for; glamor rules supreme, these days.
"If you take music out of this world, you will have nothing but a ball of fire." - Balochi musician
User avatar
I.D.10-t
Posts: 7660
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2003 9:57 am
antispam: No
Location: Minneapolis, MN, USA, Earth

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by I.D.10-t »

SteveShaw wrote:Like what? Not saying I disagree, but I'm asking about what we could be discussing.
Burying Global Warming

I am really interested to see what happens to these hybrid cars and what their lifespan is and what happens to their banks of Nickel-metal hydride and lithium batteries. What will the total environmental impact be?

If we switch over to zero net carbon emissions like bio-diesel, what kind of impact will growing the extra crops create? What amount of land and fertilizers will it take?

I really don't know what kinds of harm could manifest, but as the fear level goes up often rational thinking goes down, and you get ideas of Geo-engineering,Bio-Engeneering, solar shades, etc. that may have serious drawbacks. (not that any of these last three could be considered "green" in my book). If we get to the point where we need to do such things, I hope we don't just do something for the sake of doing it, but look at real cost/benefit analysis.

Meanwhile we enforce rules that are environmentally destructive. Home owner's associations that only allow a non-native grass lawn with a precise number of trees (not the most cooling of plant life, and one that uses fuel and water to maintain), and heaven forbid having a clothesline in the backyard. If there is an anti-lawn association, sign me up.

Encourage reduction of the phantom load, I dislike those LEDs that I can only turn off by unplugging the appliance. Reduce packaging, bring your own bags, etc. benign things we should encourage, but if there is any harm, it better be far outweighed by the benefits.
Nanohedron wrote:I think that while you are taking a thoughtful approach to cause-and-effect here, I.D.10-t, your post implies to me that maybe it's better to do nothing out of fear of a future we can't know without experiencing it.
That is not what I am saying at all, energy efficient designs for housing, proper landscaping for the location, better urban planning, wind, solar*, and other renewable resources should all be encouraged. What I am saying is that should be looked at in the context of total environmental impact, not just CO2 emissions and the fear of global climate change.

*What is the life span of the power source, what materials were used and can they be disposed of safely at the end of their useful life?
"Be not deceived by the sweet words of proverbial philosophy. Sugar of lead is a poison."
User avatar
hans
Posts: 2259
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2002 6:00 pm
antispam: No
Please enter the next number in sequence: 8
Tell us something.: I've been making whistles since 2010 in my tiny workshop at my home. I've been playing whistle since teenage times.
Location: Moray Firth, Scotland
Contact:

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by hans »

Sea levels are likely to rise by about 1.4m (4ft 6in) globally by 2100 as polar ice melts, according to a major review of climate change in Antarctica.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8387137.stm
User avatar
Nanohedron
Moderatorer
Posts: 38239
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2002 6:00 pm
antispam: No
Please enter the next number in sequence: 8
Tell us something.: Been a fluter, citternist, and uilleann piper; committed now to the way of the harp.

Oh, yeah: also a mod here, not a spammer. A matter of opinion, perhaps.
Location: Lefse country

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by Nanohedron »

I.D.10-t wrote:That is not what I am saying at all, energy efficient designs for housing, proper landscaping for the location, better urban planning, wind, solar*, and other renewable resources should all be encouraged. What I am saying is that should be looked at in the context of total environmental impact, not just CO2 emissions and the fear of global climate change.

*What is the life span of the power source, what materials were used and can they be disposed of safely at the end of their useful life?
Gotcha. You're right.
"If you take music out of this world, you will have nothing but a ball of fire." - Balochi musician
User avatar
hans
Posts: 2259
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2002 6:00 pm
antispam: No
Please enter the next number in sequence: 8
Tell us something.: I've been making whistles since 2010 in my tiny workshop at my home. I've been playing whistle since teenage times.
Location: Moray Firth, Scotland
Contact:

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by hans »

In his regular column, the BBC's environment analyst, Roger Harrabin, looks at how the affair of the stolen climate e-mails has sparked debate among some scientists about the body which peer reviews climate science:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8387365.stm
jim stone
Posts: 17192
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2001 6:00 pm

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by jim stone »

'Criticism of IPCC
Christopher Landsea resignation
Main article: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

In January 2005 Christopher Landsea resigned from work on the IPCC AR4, saying that he viewed the process "as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound" because of Kevin Trenberth's public contention that global warming was contributing to recent hurricane activity.[69] Roger A. Pielke, Jr. who published Landsea's letter writes: "How anyone can deny that political factors were everpresent in the negotiations isn't paying attention [sic]", but notes that the actual report "Despite the pressures, on tropical cyclones they figured out a way to maintain consistency with the actual balance of opinion(s) in the community of relevant experts." He continues "So there might be a human contribution (and presumably this is just to the observed upwards trends observed in some basins, and not to downward trends observed in others, but this is unclear) but the human contribution itself has not been quantitatively assessed, yet the experts, using their judgment, expect it to be there. In plain English this is what is called a 'hypothesis' and not a 'conclusion.' And it is a fair representation of the issue."[70]

Emphasis of the "hockey stick" graph
Main article: Hockey stick controversy

The third assessment report (TAR) prominently featured[71] a graph labeled "Millennial Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction" from a paper by Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes (MBH98[72]) often referred to as the "Hockey Stick Graph".

NOTE THIS SENTENCE (Jim):

This graph differed from a schematic in the first assessment report which depicted larger global temperature variations over the past 1000 years, and higher temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period than the present day. (The schematic was not an actual plot of data.)

The appearance of MBH98 in the TAR was widely construed as demonstrating that the current warming period is exceptional in comparison to temperatures between 1000 and 1900. The methodology used to produce this graph was criticized in an article by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick.[73] In a 2006 letter to Nature, Bradley, Hughes and Mann pointed out that their original article had said that "more widespread high-resolution data are needed before more confident conclusions can be reached" and that the uncertainties were "the point of the article."'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergover ... sm_of_IPCC

(Note that Michael Mann is one of the central figures in the e mail 'scandal.' As I understand the charges,
these folks are alleged to have tweaked data so as to increase the appearance of warming,
also to hide declining temperature; also they are alleged to have tried to manipulate the peer review process to
prevent criticisms of their work from getting published; also to have done what they could to prevent
releasing their data to the public. East Anglia data appear to have been quite important to IPCC.
The 'hockey stick' is important; Al Gore apparently referred to it. )

Other critics, however, maintain that the IPCC underestimates dangers (check link).
................

Penn State University is investigating Michael Mann, head of its climatology department.
He says he welcomes the investigation.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blog ... begin.aspx
User avatar
rorybbellows
Posts: 3195
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2003 7:50 am
antispam: No
Please enter the next number in sequence: 10
Location: the cutting edge

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by rorybbellows »

hans wrote:Sea levels are likely to rise by about 1.4m (4ft 6in) globally by 2100 as polar ice melts, according to a major review of climate change in Antarctica.
Since The Arctic is current floating, melting of Artic ice will actually lower the current sea level. Frozen water (Ice) has a 10% greater displacement than liquid water. Once that Ice melts displacement reduces by the same 10% causing a net lowering of overall water level. If all the floating Arctic ice were to melt you would have a significant lowering of sea levels.

RORY
I'm Spartacus .
User avatar
fancypiper
Posts: 2162
Joined: Mon Jun 02, 2003 1:08 pm
antispam: No
Please enter the next number in sequence: 12
Location: Sparta NC
Contact:

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by fancypiper »

31,486 American scientists have signed this petition,
including 9,029 with PhDs.

Summary of Peer Reviewed Research
Last edited by fancypiper on Sat Dec 12, 2009 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
BigDavy
Posts: 4883
Joined: Sat Dec 11, 2004 5:50 am
Please enter the next number in sequence: 1
Location: Larkhall Scotland

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by BigDavy »

Hi rory

You are a bit wrong there - the density of sea ice is less than that of cold sea water - the volume of water it displaces is a smaller volume than the ice - hence it is bouyant.

If the Arctic sea ice all melted it would have zero effect on sea levels, it is only ice currently on land melting that can affect sea levels.

David
Payday, Piping, Percussion and Poetry- the 4 best Ps
User avatar
MTGuru
Posts: 18663
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 12:45 pm
antispam: No
Please enter the next number in sequence: 8
Location: San Diego, CA

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by MTGuru »

fancypiper wrote:31,486 American scientists have signed this petition,
including 9,029 with PhDs.
Yep. Nothing new there.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Or ... d_Medicine
Vivat diabolus in musica! MTGuru's (old) GG Clips / Blackbird Clips

Joel Barish: Is there any risk of brain damage?
Dr. Mierzwiak: Well, technically speaking, the procedure is brain damage.
User avatar
rorybbellows
Posts: 3195
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2003 7:50 am
antispam: No
Please enter the next number in sequence: 10
Location: the cutting edge

Re: Four degrees of warming 'likely'

Post by rorybbellows »

To put in simple terms when water turns to ice it swells,this is why water pipes burst when they freeze, so ice takes up more volume than water hence the falling sea levels when the ice melts.

RORY
I'm Spartacus .
Post Reply