Four degrees of warming 'likely'

[hans]

@Rory:
from the SCAR report:

The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report projected a range of global sea-level increase from 18 to 59 cm between 1980-1999 and 2090-2099. This did not include a contribution from the dynamically driven changes in flow for portions of either the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets. Recent modelling suggests that by 2100 global sea level may rise by up to 1.4m rather than the IPCC’s suggested 59 cm.

These "dynamically driven changes in flow" are collapse of sea ice shelves due to melting and an accelerated flow of glacier ice into the sea as a consequence. It is this additional glacier ice which is projected to cause additional sea level rise. Not the melting sea ice.

[dwest]

31,486 American scientists have signed this petition,
including 9,029 with PhDs.

Yep. Nothing new there.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Or ... d_Medicine

The Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine (OISM) describes itself as "a small research institute" that studies "biochemistry, diagnostic medicine, nutrition, preventive medicine and the molecular biology of aging." It is headed by Arthur B. Robinson, an eccentric scientist who has a long history of controversial entanglements with figures on the fringe of accepted research. OISM also markets a home-schooling kit for "parents concerned about socialism in the public schools" and publishes books on how to survive nuclear war

Fringe, isn't that a TV show on Fox?

All seriousness aside I'm afraid the earth's oceans will just become giant Ghyben-Herzberg lenses

[SteveShaw]

To put in simple terms when water turns to ice it swells,this is why water pipes burst when they freeze, so ice takes up more volume than water hence the falling sea levels when the ice melts.

RORY

No Rory. When that ice was ice some of it was above sea level and therefore not counted. Think tops of icebergs. When the ice melts it takes up less space as you say, but that is compensated for by the fact that all the ice that used to be proud of the sea surface is now in the sea, contributing to a higher sea level (or at least not lowering it). And don't forget that meltwater continues to contract right up to plus four degrees Celsius. Good job it does as life on earth depends on that little quirk.

[BigDavy]

Anything that floats displaces it's own weight of water, as ice is less dense than cold sea water the volume of water it displaces is less than it's own volume thus it floats. melting the sea ice simply supplies weight of water that the sea ice previously displaced => no effect on sea level.

The only 4 things that can raise the sea levels are
1) Glacier melt
2) Ice sheet melt (Greenland and Antarctica)
3) Thermal expansion due to the oceans warming up
4) Alterations to the sea bed due to tectonic activity

David

I suppose I should include being hit by an ice comet/asteroid as well

[SteveShaw]

With the caveat, David, that water continues to contract, not expand, until it warms up to 4ºC. Recently-melted sea ice will be somewhere in that range, below 4º, so thermal expansion won't occur straight away for warming meltwater.

[hippiechick]

We'll need more CO2 cause temperatures are dropping everywhere!
In the mean time, polar bears have learned to swim and sea levels
are dropping.
They were going to tax us with the hockey stick curve, saved by the bell!!

[s1m0n]

Since The Arctic is current floating, melting of Artic ice will actually lower the current sea level. Frozen water (Ice) has a 10% greater displacement than liquid water.

Not so. A floating iceberg displaces the amount of water equal to it's weight, not it's volume. The excess ten percent stays above the surface and displaces air, not water. It contributes nothing to sea level.

You can easily check this with a glass of water and an icecube. Put one* cube into a glass of water and mark the level of the water against the side of the glass. Once it's marked, leave the glass on your kitchen counter until the ice has melted. Check the waterline against your earlier mark, and you will find that they are identical.

*If you're using a narrow glass with several cubes, some will be pushed under by the weight of the other cubes, skewing your result.

[hans]

In the mean time, polar bears have learned to swim...

No, seriously
Maybe you care to study how polar bears survive by hunting seals on the ice,
and not by swimming after them!

[hippiechick]

In the mean time, polar bears have learned to swim...

No, seriously
Maybe you care to study how polar bears survive by hunting seals on the ice,
and not by swimming after them!

No, Hans they don't need diving suits while hunting seals under the ice.

http://library.thinkquest.org/3500/polarbear.htm

Btw, hell's freezing over!

[hans]

Btw, hell's freezing over!

Is that a good thing?
Time to move out?
Or too late and you are trapped already?

[rorybbellows]

All the water being released by the melting ice caps is becoming airbourne during the temperture increase and it is also taking the place of the millions of gallons oil being pumped out of the ground thats why up to this point in time there has been a zero rise in the sea level.

RORY

[dwest]

All the water being released by the melting ice caps is becoming airbourne during the temperture increase and it is also taking the place of the millions of gallons oil being pumped out of the ground thats why up to this point in time there has been a zero rise in the sea level.

RORY

No! All the water is flowing into coal mines, forming sulfuric acid, filling up to the surface, draining out into the rivers, destroying complex ecosystems and eating the soles off my shoes.

[hippiechick]

Btw, hell's freezing over!

Is that a good thing?
Time to move out?
Or too late and you are trapped already?

Hans, if i didn't care about you i wouldn't tell you.
We just have to switch to alternative energies instead of taxing everything untill everyone's broken and the middle class's gone. The very same people that promote C02 taxes are responsible for millions of lives, drug traffic and polluting food. They don't care about nature. So get out of your hypnosis before it's too late.

[Edited by moderator]

[SteveShaw]

Switching to alternative energies on the scale needed in the time we have left is not going to happen, and the sooner the heads-in-clouds rainbow greens accept this and stop prattling on about useless windfarms and the like the better. If anyone's been hypnotised it's them. We have to wean ourselves off our wasteful dependency on cheap energy. There is no other way. All this talk of nuclear, wind, wave and massive arrays of solar panels is pie in the sky, and, worse, it makes us all think that our present energy use is hunkydory and all we have to do is think up methods of producing it "in greener ways." We have to stop the insane profligacy of transporting stuff that could be produced locally and seasonally thousands of miles, we have to stop using massive gas-guzzling cars whose only function is to make timid drivers "feel safe," we have to curtail needless air-travel and mass tourism, we have to build buildings with windows that actually open instead of hermetically sealing them and installing air-conditioning and we have to stop letting heat escape into the atmosphere. And there is no such thing as "waste heat" for Pete's sake. I took all my Christmas empties to the bottle bank today and smashed them all down the hole. Did I feel virtuous? No I didn't. I smashed a dozen perfectly good wine bottles that could have been refilled dozens of times. On my way home I called at the supermarket and bought four pints of milk in two plastic containers (with tops made of different plastic ) that cannot be re-used. There are tens of thousands of dairy cows within a few miles of me, but as far as I'm aware my milk comes from a vast industrial processing plant a hundred miles up the M5. It probably went there from our local cows and came all the way back again in those nasty plastic bottles. Yes, I should try harder, shouldn't I. For tea we had two little quiches that were wrapped in cardboard, plastic film and aluminium trays (yep, tell me I shouldn't have bought 'em - I know that already). If I buy orange juice it comes in square cardboard containers that have been heavily waxed and which can't be recycled. The ring-pulls are made of one kind of plastic and the screw-caps are made of another. I think we're probably all stark staring mad. I reckon the human race could thrive on half or less of the energy it currently uses. But I won't do it because my friends and neighbours don't do it so what's the point. China and India won't do it because America doesn't do it - same thing really...

[dwest]

For tea we had two little quiches that were wrapped in cardboard, plastic film and aluminium trays (yep, tell me I shouldn't have bought 'em - I know that already). If I buy orange juice it comes in square cardboard containers that have been heavily waxed and which can't be recycled. The ring-pulls are made of one kind of plastic and the screw-caps are made of another. I think we're probably all stark staring mad. I reckon the human race could thrive on half or less of the energy it currently uses. But I won't do it because my friends and neighbours don't do it so what's the point. China and India won't do it because America doesn't do it - same thing really...

Well I bake my own quiches, squeeze my own orange juice, buy my milk at the store, but it was bottled right here in ma city from cows 70 miles away. And it comes in a # 2 HDPE plastic jug with a # 2 HDPE plastic cap. I hope you people over there get your act together before we move back. I'd hate moving from an enlightened society back into the dark ages.